July 29, 2025 — The NIFTY 50 index continued its downward trajectory for the third consecutive session on July 28, prompting a shift in its key support level. Technical analysts now anticipate support near the 24,500 mark, aligning with June's low, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and a significant Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the recent rally between 23,935 and 25,669.
Market Sentiment: Weakness Likely to Persist Below 24,800
The overall market sentiment remains cautious. Analysts believe that unless the NIFTY 50 manages to decisively cross the 24,800 level, the index may stay under pressure. Short-term indicators suggest a potential drift towards the 24,550–24,500 zone, where strong technical support is expected to emerge.
Resistance Levels and Rebound Potential
In the event of a recovery, the index faces stiff resistance in the 24,800–24,900 range. A breakout above 24,800 could initiate a pullback rally, with upside targets set at 24,900 and a psychological milestone of 25,000. However, such a reversal would require strong buying interest and a significant shift in investor sentiment.
Key Factors Behind Market Weakness
Several factors are contributing to the recent correction:
- Disappointing Q1 FY26 Earnings: Many blue-chip companies have missed profit estimates, triggering selling pressure.
- FII Outflows: Persistent selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) is weighing heavily on the broader market.
- Valuation Concerns: Elevated valuations across sectors are prompting cautious repositioning by both domestic and global investors.
- Broader Market Impact: Mid-cap and small-cap indices are underperforming, reflecting a broader risk-off mood among traders.
Outlook
As the Nifty 50 hovers near critical technical levels, market participants are advised to remain cautious. Any recovery attempt must be backed by strong volumes and a turnaround in macro indicators. Until then, the 24,500 support zone remains crucial, with downside risks still present.
